Great Powers

Abu Dhabi's withdrawal from Yemen was neither overextension nor weakness—it was a calculated bet that Iran matters more than the Horn of Africa. The Emirates are consolidating forces for a Gulf confrontation they believe is coming, trading influence in one theater for survivability in another.

China's Joint Sword exercises compressed attack timelines to hours, not days. Taiwan's radars can detect missiles six minutes out—but detection is not decision. The real question is whether anyone can act on what they see before the window closes entirely.

China's surprise military drills around Taiwan aren't preparing for a blockade—they are the blockade, executed in installments. As exercises blur into operations, the invasion may have already begun at a tempo too slow for democracies to recognize.

The United States is spending $40 billion to rebuild World War II-era Pacific airfields as a hedge against Chinese missiles. The strategy assumes dispersal complicates targeting. But satellites see everything, logistics constrain everything, and coral crumbles unpredictably. Is Washington...

North Korea's first nuclear-powered submarine sits at Sinpo, its reactor status unknown and missiles untested. Yet the strategic calculations it forces in Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington reveal that regional stability, extended deterrence, and the nonproliferation regime were never as separate as...