Why middle powers are building tech security pacts without America—and whether it will work
Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Canada are forging bilateral agreements on semiconductors, critical minerals, and cyber defense that bypass traditional alliances. These minilateral arrangements aim to reduce China dependency, but success requires decades of investment that democratic...
Himars on Taiwan's outlying islands: Why vulnerable tripwires don't create deterrence
Taiwan's HIMARS gamble: Why Taipei is deploying missiles it cannot protect
Taiwan plans to station American-supplied precision weapons on islands within easy reach of Chinese missiles. The systems will likely be destroyed within hours of any conflict. That may be exactly the point.
Trajectory Daily Brief: 03 February 2026
Taiwan builds submarines as India tests hypersonics. Bougainville rejects Chinese copper over paperwork while US Gulf allies deny America the bases it needs to strike Iran.
Taiwan's submarines face China's closing acoustic window
Taiwan's submarine gamble: Can eight boats deter a Chinese invasion?
Taiwan is building its first indigenous submarines after decades of failed foreign procurement. The program aims to create sea denial capability against China, but faces a race between slow production schedules and rapidly improving Chinese anti-submarine warfare. The window where these boats...
Trajectory Daily Brief: 02 February 2026
Xi purges more generals than Mao ever did. Taiwan's rocket launchers get two shots before dying. Bougainville rejects Chinese billions while America loses Gulf bases.
Xi Jinping's military purges reveal a force built to obey, not to fight
Xi's military purge: war preparation or proof that China can't fight?
The largest removal of Chinese generals since Mao reveals a military hollowed by corruption while racing toward a 2027 Taiwan deadline. Xi Jinping is simultaneously cleaning house and discovering the house was far dirtier than he knew.
India's hypersonic anti-ship missile creates mutual vulnerability without shifting Indian ocean power
India's hypersonic missile creates mutual vulnerability with China, not strategic advantage
New Delhi's successful test of a Mach 10 anti-ship missile demonstrates technological prowess but enters an arms race India cannot win on industrial terms. The weapon compresses crisis decision-making without shifting the Indian Ocean's fundamental power dynamics.
