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Great Powers

Strategic analysis of US-China-Russia competition, multipolarity, and the dynamics of great power rivalry that shape the international order.

India's Southeast Asia Defence Gambit: Useful Partner, Limited Constraint

India's Southeast Asia Defence Gambit: Useful Partner, Limited Constraint

New Delhi's Act East Policy has delivered joint exercises, BrahMos sales, and maritime cooperation across Southeast Asia. But ASEAN's hedging strategies ensure these partnerships diversify options rather than constrain Beijing—a feature, not a bug, of regional security architecture.

The Fire Next Time: Iran's 2026 Uprising and the Limits of Repression

The Fire Next Time: Iran's 2026 Uprising and the Limits of Repression

The protests that erupted in December 2025 have spread to all 31 Iranian provinces, transforming from economic grievance into existential challenge. The Islamic Republic's response reveals a system that has exhausted its capacity for adaptation—and a population that has stopped believing in reform.

The Pentagon's Absorption Problem: Why $1.5 Trillion Cannot Buy Its Way to Capability

The Pentagon's Absorption Problem: Why $1.5 Trillion Cannot Buy Its Way to Capability

A 50% defense budget increase sounds transformative. But market concentration, workforce collapse, and acquisition sclerosis ensure that additional funding will inflate contractor profits rather than expand military capability. The constraints are structural, not managerial.

America's First Strikes in Nigeria Signal a New Sahel Doctrine

America's First Strikes in Nigeria Signal a New Sahel Doctrine

On Christmas Day 2025, American missiles hit Nigerian soil for the first time. The operation targeted ISIS militants near Sokoto—but its true target was the collapsing security architecture of West Africa, where French withdrawal and Russian expansion have left Washington with fewer options and...

The Invisible Tripwire: How China's Cable Control Erodes South China Sea Deterrence

The Invisible Tripwire: How China's Cable Control Erodes South China Sea Deterrence

China's ability to sever or tap Southeast Asian undersea cables creates pre-conflict leverage that degrades allied coordination without triggering retaliation. The advantage is quiet, legal, and growing.

The Purge Paradox: Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Crippling the Military It Was Meant to Strengthen

The Purge Paradox: Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Crippling the Military It Was Meant to Strengthen

China's military purges have removed at least fifteen senior officers and cut the Central Military Commission nearly in half. The campaign reveals not strength through discipline but a loyalty-competence trap that may leave the PLA weaker precisely when Xi needs it strongest.

The Trillion-Dollar Question

The Trillion-Dollar Question

President Trump's call for a 50% defense budget increase promises to fix America's military readiness crisis. But the system that converts dollars into capability is broken. More money through broken channels produces contractor profits, not combat power.

The Philippines Cannot Defend Its Undersea Cables—and Neither Can Anyone Else

The Philippines Cannot Defend Its Undersea Cables—and Neither Can Anyone Else

Ninety-five percent of Philippine internet traffic travels through fiber-optic threads that no navy can protect. China's gray zone operations exploit legal voids and attribution impossibilities, leaving Southeast Asia's digital infrastructure structurally vulnerable to interference that cannot...

America's Nigeria Problem: Why Military Strikes Risk Handing Beijing a Strategic Gift

America's Nigeria Problem: Why Military Strikes Risk Handing Beijing a Strategic Gift

The Christmas Day airstrikes against ISIS in Nigeria exposed a deeper tension in American strategy. Washington wants counterterrorism results and Nigerian partnership—but its methods may be driving Africa's most consequential state toward China's waiting embrace.

Why China Keeps Pouring Concrete into the South China Sea

Why China Keeps Pouring Concrete into the South China Sea

Beijing's artificial islands violate international law, alienate neighbors, and invite American warships into contested waters. China builds them anyway. The reason reveals uncomfortable truths about its Taiwan planning horizon and the method behind apparent recklessness.

The Trillion-Dollar Bottleneck

The Trillion-Dollar Bottleneck

Trump's proposed 50% defence spending surge promises a 'Dream Military' by 2027. But with the industrial base running at 41% capacity and 700,000 security clearances backlogged, the money cannot buy what the factories cannot build. The bottleneck is physical, not fiscal.

The Philippines Cannot Defend What It Cannot Connect

The Philippines Cannot Defend What It Cannot Connect

China has developed specialized equipment to sever undersea cables at 4,000-meter depths. The Philippines routes 95% of its international data—including military command systems—through exactly such cables. If Beijing cuts these connections during a Taiwan crisis, Manila's ability to coordinate...