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Great Powers

Strategic analysis of US-China-Russia competition, multipolarity, and the dynamics of great power rivalry that shape the international order.

China knows where America's Pacific defenses are weakest—because INDOPACOM keeps telling them

China knows where America's Pacific defenses are weakest—because INDOPACOM keeps telling them

Admiral Paparo identified three 'meta trends' reshaping warfare: information, cognitive, and cyber operations. His testimony revealed that American forces still bolt these capabilities on at the end rather than integrating them from the start. That gap is where Chinese strategy operates.

Why the US cannot match China's ground station expansion—and what fails first in a space war

Why the US cannot match China's ground station expansion—and what fails first in a space war

China has built a global network of satellite ground stations across the Global South while American interagency processes grind slowly. The infrastructure gap reveals which systems would collapse first in orbital conflict.

What the Al Udeid evacuation actually reveals about American power in the Gulf

What the Al Udeid evacuation actually reveals about American power in the Gulf

The partial evacuation of US personnel from Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base in January 2026 sparked debate over whether strikes on Iran are imminent or Gulf states hold veto power over American military action. Both interpretations miss what the movement actually reveals: a signaling system that has...

Dark Eagle arrives: Why America's first hypersonic weapon won't close the gap with China

Dark Eagle arrives: Why America's first hypersonic weapon won't close the gap with China

The U.S. Army has declared its Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon operational, but with fewer than a dozen missiles against China's hundreds, the 'hypersonic gap' is being acknowledged rather than closed. Scale, not technology, will determine relevance.

Why China keeps building in the South China Sea despite already controlling it

Why China keeps building in the South China Sea despite already controlling it

Antelope Reef is not redundant expansion but the missing node in a surveillance network stretching from Hainan to the Spratlys. Beijing has learned that international protest is survivable—and strategic gaps are not.

China's AI Army: Impressive Architecture, Fragile Foundations

China's AI Army: Impressive Architecture, Fragile Foundations

The People's Liberation Army has invested billions in artificial intelligence to achieve 'intelligentized warfare.' But centralized command structures, data quality problems, and semiconductor dependencies create vulnerabilities that American strategy could exploit—if Washington acts before...

Can $45 million in US aid compete with China's infrastructure billions in mainland Southeast Asia?

Can $45 million in US aid compete with China's infrastructure billions in mainland Southeast Asia?

America pledges millions for regional stability while China deploys billions in railways and ports. But Southeast Asian states are not choosing between patrons—they are reviving an ancient political technology that extracts benefits from both while committing to neither.

Why NATO cannot stop Russian attacks on undersea cables it sees coming

Why NATO cannot stop Russian attacks on undersea cables it sees coming

The alliance's surveillance network tracks every suspicious vessel in the Baltic. Its legal framework, ownership structures, and decision-making architecture ensure that watching is all it can do. Russia has learned to exploit the gap.

Can China's military AI actually outpace US decision-making over Taiwan?

Can China's military AI actually outpace US decision-making over Taiwan?

The PLA is racing to build AI command systems that operate at machine speed. But the Communist Party's political control mechanisms may prevent China's military from using the speed it is building.

How military dependency is reshaping American governance

How military dependency is reshaping American governance

The United States has conducted hundreds of strikes across seven countries under a single authorization passed in 2001. This is not policy choice but structural evolution—a republic whose institutional metabolism now requires continuous military activity to function.

Why American missiles would save Iran's dying regime

Why American missiles would save Iran's dying regime

The 2026 protests represent the Islamic Republic's deepest legitimacy crisis since 1979. Protesters have spread to all 31 provinces, targeting the Supreme Leader himself. American military intervention would accomplish what regime propaganda has failed to achieve: reunifying a fractured society...

The Plasma Sheath Problem: North Korea's Hypersonic Gambit

The Plasma Sheath Problem: North Korea's Hypersonic Gambit

North Korea's hypersonic missiles may not defeat American defences today. But they exploit structural vulnerabilities that software patches cannot fix—and the adaptation cycle favours Pyongyang.