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Great Powers

Strategic analysis of US-China-Russia competition, multipolarity, and the dynamics of great power rivalry that shape the international order.

Japan's hypersonic gamble: Deterrence restored or arms race accelerated?

Japan's hypersonic gamble: Deterrence restored or arms race accelerated?

Tokyo's new strike capabilities are designed to counter China and North Korea. But the same weapons that strengthen deterrence also fuel the regional arms competition they aim to prevent—a contradiction Japan cannot escape.

Has Chinese espionage already crippled Taiwan's military before the war begins?

Has Chinese espionage already crippled Taiwan's military before the war begins?

Taiwan prosecuted 64 espionage cases last year while absorbing 2.4 million cyberattacks daily. The island can still fight—but decades of Chinese intelligence penetration have eroded command coherence, constrained American cooperation, and enabled Beijing to calibrate coercion with uncomfortable...

Diego Garcia's new landlord: How Mauritius gains leverage over America's most valuable Indian Ocean base

Diego Garcia's new landlord: How Mauritius gains leverage over America's most valuable Indian Ocean base

Britain's transfer of Chagos sovereignty to Mauritius preserves US military operations under a 99-year lease—but gives a small island nation with growing Chinese ties quiet leverage that compounds over decades.

Why a tiny Indian Ocean atoll is fracturing the UK-US alliance

Why a tiny Indian Ocean atoll is fracturing the UK-US alliance

The Chagos Islands deal was meant to resolve a colonial wrong. Instead, it has exposed how legal challenges, sovereignty disputes, and shifting politics can threaten military infrastructure that great powers assumed was permanent.

Trump's NATO ultimatum: Will Europe rearm, fragment, or go nuclear?

Trump's NATO ultimatum: Will Europe rearm, fragment, or go nuclear?

American pressure has pushed European defense spending to record highs. But rising budgets mask deeper fractures over strategy, capability, and nuclear deterrence that could reshape transatlantic security for decades.

Japan's hypersonic missiles will work—the system that commands them will not

Japan's hypersonic missiles will work—the system that commands them will not

Tokyo's new strike weapons force a question Japanese strategic culture has avoided for three generations. The answer will fracture alliances before it deters adversaries.

What the strikes on Iran revealed about Israeli vulnerability and regional realignment

What the strikes on Iran revealed about Israeli vulnerability and regional realignment

The June 2025 attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities tested a generation of assumptions about proxy coordination and Israeli defense capacity. The outcome defied predictions of both triumph and collapse, exposing structural dynamics that will shape Middle Eastern security for decades.

The Arctic is breaking in three places at once—and no one can stop it

The Arctic is breaking in three places at once—and no one can stop it

NATO allies clash over Greenland's future while Russian pipelines sink into thawing permafrost and Chinese shipping routes prove more fragile than promised. The Arctic's transformation is outpacing every institution meant to govern it.

Will Trump's security doctrine push Japan, South Korea, and Poland toward nuclear weapons?

Will Trump's security doctrine push Japan, South Korea, and Poland toward nuclear weapons?

The Pentagon's 2025 strategy tells allies to handle their own defense. For three countries living under nuclear-armed adversaries, this creates a calculation that diplomatic frameworks may be too slow to constrain.

Britain leaves the Gulf: Which US allies will follow?

Britain leaves the Gulf: Which US allies will follow?

After 46 years of continuous Royal Navy presence, Britain's last warship has departed Bahrain—just as Iran escalates. The withdrawal reveals which American allies treat security commitments as optional expenses and which see them as existential necessities.

Why Venezuela's collapse emboldens rather than deters China on Taiwan

Why Venezuela's collapse emboldens rather than deters China on Taiwan

Beijing watched Venezuela's economy contract 88% under Western sanctions—and concluded that authoritarian regimes can survive isolation. The lesson China learned is not the one the West intended to teach.

Japan's hypersonic missiles blur the line between defense and attack

Japan's hypersonic missiles blur the line between defense and attack

Tokyo's new weapons can strike Chinese bases within minutes. Officials call them defensive. Beijing sees a sword dressed as a shield. The distinction may determine whether Asia's next crisis stays contained or spirals into catastrophe.