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Great Powers

Strategic analysis of US-China-Russia competition, multipolarity, and the dynamics of great power rivalry that shape the international order.

Why America's missile defense industry cannot keep pace with Iran's drone production

Why America's missile defense industry cannot keep pace with Iran's drone production

A $4 million interceptor against a $20,000 drone creates arithmetic that favors the attacker. As Iranian production scales through franchise networks in Russia and proxy territories, American manufacturers face structural constraints that no amount of engineering excellence can overcome.

Australia's submarine gamble: Why B-2 bombers cannot replace AUKUS

Australia's submarine gamble: Why B-2 bombers cannot replace AUKUS

If AUKUS submarines arrive late or not at all, Australia has no credible Plan B. The B-2 bomber—often floated as an alternative—is neither available nor suitable. Understanding why reveals hard truths about middle-power deterrence.

Why NATO's air defences cannot stop cheap drones—and what it would take to change that

Why NATO's air defences cannot stop cheap drones—and what it would take to change that

The alliance spent decades building systems to defeat expensive missiles. Now it faces swarms of $50,000 drones that exploit every assumption baked into Cold War-era doctrine. The arithmetic of exhaustion favours the attacker.

Australia's Pacific communications would collapse in a Taiwan crisis. Here's why.

Australia's Pacific communications would collapse in a Taiwan crisis. Here's why.

China's new deep-sea cable-cutting technology can sever the undersea lines carrying 99% of Australia's data to Pacific partners. Satellites cannot compensate. HF radio offers only degraded backup. The honest assessment is sobering.

Taiwan's porcupine strategy has sharper quills but an uncertain heart

Taiwan's porcupine strategy has sharper quills but an uncertain heart

The island's shift toward asymmetric warfare addresses genuine tactical gaps in its defense posture. But missiles and drones cannot solve the deeper problem: whether Taiwanese society can sustain the casualties that successful resistance would require.

Why Gulf allies would abandon the US before American strike capability fails

Why Gulf allies would abandon the US before American strike capability fails

If Washington loses access to Gulf bases for Iran operations, the question is not whether military capability or regional alliances break first—it is why the alliances are already fracturing while the Pentagon adapts.

Taiwan's gray-zone dilemma: How to fight fishing boats without starting a war

Taiwan's gray-zone dilemma: How to fight fishing boats without starting a war

China's maritime militia can strangle Taiwan's economy without firing a shot. The island's military has tools to respond—but every option risks the escalation Taipei desperately wants to avoid. In the narrow space between capitulation and catastrophe, Taiwan must find a path that may not exist.

Why middle powers are building tech security pacts without America—and whether it will work

Why middle powers are building tech security pacts without America—and whether it will work

Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Canada are forging bilateral agreements on semiconductors, critical minerals, and cyber defense that bypass traditional alliances. These minilateral arrangements aim to reduce China dependency, but success requires decades of investment that democratic...

Taiwan's HIMARS gamble: Why Taipei is deploying missiles it cannot protect

Taiwan's HIMARS gamble: Why Taipei is deploying missiles it cannot protect

Taiwan plans to station American-supplied precision weapons on islands within easy reach of Chinese missiles. The systems will likely be destroyed within hours of any conflict. That may be exactly the point.

Taiwan's submarine gamble: Can eight boats deter a Chinese invasion?

Taiwan's submarine gamble: Can eight boats deter a Chinese invasion?

Taiwan is building its first indigenous submarines after decades of failed foreign procurement. The program aims to create sea denial capability against China, but faces a race between slow production schedules and rapidly improving Chinese anti-submarine warfare. The window where these boats...

Xi's military purge: war preparation or proof that China can't fight?

Xi's military purge: war preparation or proof that China can't fight?

The largest removal of Chinese generals since Mao reveals a military hollowed by corruption while racing toward a 2027 Taiwan deadline. Xi Jinping is simultaneously cleaning house and discovering the house was far dirtier than he knew.

India's hypersonic missile creates mutual vulnerability with China, not strategic advantage

India's hypersonic missile creates mutual vulnerability with China, not strategic advantage

New Delhi's successful test of a Mach 10 anti-ship missile demonstrates technological prowess but enters an arms race India cannot win on industrial terms. The weapon compresses crisis decision-making without shifting the Indian Ocean's fundamental power dynamics.