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Energy & Climate

Analysis of energy pipelines, oil and gas geopolitics, resource competition, and climate security as strategic factors.

When the Taps Run Dry: The Cascading Consequences of Water Infrastructure Failure in Australia

When the Taps Run Dry: The Cascading Consequences of Water Infrastructure Failure in Australia

Australia's water and sewerage systems serve millions through infrastructure so reliable it has become invisible. That invisibility masks profound vulnerability—to cyber attack, climate stress, and institutional neglect. When disruption comes, its consequences will cascade far beyond burst pipes.

When the Grid Goes Dark: The Cascading Consequences of Australia's Electricity Vulnerability

Energy & Climate

When the Grid Goes Dark: The Cascading Consequences of Australia's Electricity Vulnerability

Australia's electricity grid faces compounding threats from cyber attacks, extreme weather, and accelerating coal closures. The consequences of major disruption cascade through three orders of magnitude—from immediate infrastructure failure to civilisational transformation. Current planning...

The Window That Won't Close: Russia's Shadow Fleet and NATO's Undersea Vulnerability

The Window That Won't Close: Russia's Shadow Fleet and NATO's Undersea Vulnerability

Russia's shadow fleet has spent years mapping NATO's undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic and North Sea. The intelligence is collected. The targets are known. In a crisis, the vulnerability window—measured in weeks of degraded communications and months of repairs—favors the attacker. NATO...

The Pipeline and the Sword

Energy & Climate

The Pipeline and the Sword

Russia's weaponisation of energy exports has transformed NATO's strategic calculus more profoundly than any military build-up since 1991. The alliance now faces a contest where molecules matter as much as missiles—and where Europe's thirty-year bet on interdependence has become its most...

The Glacier's Verdict

The Glacier's Verdict

At 4,500 metres in the Depsang Plains, sovereignty dissolves with the permafrost. Chinese and Indian soldiers patrol terrain that is literally disappearing beneath their boots—glaciers retreating, watersheds shifting, the physical geography that once defined borders melting into cartographic...

The Ice Beneath the Peace

Energy & Climate

The Ice Beneath the Peace

Antarctica's greatest asset is its legal fiction. For sixty-five years, the Antarctic Treaty System has performed an extraordinary conjuring trick: seven nations claim sovereignty over the continent, two superpowers reserve the right to claim, and everyone pretends that freezing these positions...