Sign in Subscribe

Energy & Climate

Analysis of energy pipelines, oil and gas geopolitics, resource competition, and climate security as strategic factors.

Why Gulf allies would abandon the US before American strike capability fails

Why Gulf allies would abandon the US before American strike capability fails

If Washington loses access to Gulf bases for Iran operations, the question is not whether military capability or regional alliances break first—it is why the alliances are already fracturing while the Pentagon adapts.

Can America strike Iran without Gulf bases? The uncomfortable arithmetic of Middle East deterrence

Can America strike Iran without Gulf bases? The uncomfortable arithmetic of Middle East deterrence

When B-2 bombers hit Iranian nuclear facilities in January 2025, they flew from Missouri—not Qatar or the UAE. Gulf allies are hedging, and Washington's regional leverage is narrower than it admits.

What happens when America's Gulf allies refuse to host Iran strikes

What happens when America's Gulf allies refuse to host Iran strikes

When Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar denied basing and overflight access for operations against Iran, they exposed the fragility beneath four decades of American military investment in the Gulf. The US can still strike—but not sustain a campaign.

The Arctic is breaking in three places at once—and no one can stop it

The Arctic is breaking in three places at once—and no one can stop it

NATO allies clash over Greenland's future while Russian pipelines sink into thawing permafrost and Chinese shipping routes prove more fragile than promised. The Arctic's transformation is outpacing every institution meant to govern it.

Britain leaves the Gulf: Which US allies will follow?

Britain leaves the Gulf: Which US allies will follow?

After 46 years of continuous Royal Navy presence, Britain's last warship has departed Bahrain—just as Iran escalates. The withdrawal reveals which American allies treat security commitments as optional expenses and which see them as existential necessities.

Why Gulf states are urging America not to strike Iran

Why Gulf states are urging America not to strike Iran

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and their neighbours have spent decades under an American security umbrella. Now they are begging Washington to keep that umbrella closed—fearing they would pay the price for any attack on Tehran.

What the Al Udeid evacuation actually reveals about American power in the Gulf

What the Al Udeid evacuation actually reveals about American power in the Gulf

The partial evacuation of US personnel from Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base in January 2026 sparked debate over whether strikes on Iran are imminent or Gulf states hold veto power over American military action. Both interpretations miss what the movement actually reveals: a signaling system that has...

The Ice That Binds: Trump's Greenland Gambit and the Fractures in American Arctic Strategy

The Ice That Binds: Trump's Greenland Gambit and the Fractures in American Arctic Strategy

Trump's demand for Greenland ownership does not create contradictions in US Arctic strategy—it exposes structural fractures that have long empowered patient adversaries. The real question is whether Washington can align its planning horizons with melting realities.

Why Sudan's Peace Agreements Keep Succeeding at Everything Except Peace

Why Sudan's Peace Agreements Keep Succeeding at Everything Except Peace

Sudan has signed more than a dozen major peace accords since 1972. Each promised transformation. Each delivered reconfiguration. The problem isn't failed implementation—it's a political economy where durable peace is structurally irrational for those with guns.

When the Taps Run Dry: The Cascading Consequences of Water Infrastructure Failure in Australia

When the Taps Run Dry: The Cascading Consequences of Water Infrastructure Failure in Australia

Australia's water and sewerage systems serve millions through infrastructure so reliable it has become invisible. That invisibility masks profound vulnerability—to cyber attack, climate stress, and institutional neglect. When disruption comes, its consequences will cascade far beyond burst pipes.

When the Grid Goes Dark: The Cascading Consequences of Australia's Electricity Vulnerability

Energy & Climate

When the Grid Goes Dark: The Cascading Consequences of Australia's Electricity Vulnerability

Australia's electricity grid faces compounding threats from cyber attacks, extreme weather, and accelerating coal closures. The consequences of major disruption cascade through three orders of magnitude—from immediate infrastructure failure to civilisational transformation. Current planning...

The Window That Won't Close: Russia's Shadow Fleet and NATO's Undersea Vulnerability

The Window That Won't Close: Russia's Shadow Fleet and NATO's Undersea Vulnerability

Russia's shadow fleet has spent years mapping NATO's undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic and North Sea. The intelligence is collected. The targets are known. In a crisis, the vulnerability window—measured in weeks of degraded communications and months of repairs—favors the attacker. NATO...