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Assessments

Why Sudan's Peace Agreements Keep Succeeding at Everything Except Peace

Why Sudan's Peace Agreements Keep Succeeding at Everything Except Peace

Sudan has signed more than a dozen major peace accords since 1972. Each promised transformation. Each delivered reconfiguration. The problem isn't failed implementation—it's a political economy where durable peace is structurally irrational for those with guns.

Japan's $58 Billion Bet: Deterrence or Target Practice?

Japan's $58 Billion Bet: Deterrence or Target Practice?

Tokyo's record defence budget buys genuine capabilities that will complicate Chinese military planning. But constitutional constraints, industrial limitations, and alliance dependencies mean the billions purchase time and options—not security guarantees. The honest answer: Japan is creating both...

China's Nine-Carrier Cathedral: Monument or Miscalculation?

China's Nine-Carrier Cathedral: Monument or Miscalculation?

The Pentagon says China will field nine aircraft carriers by 2035—the largest Indo-Pacific carrier buildup since World War II. But building ships optimized for blue-water prestige while Taiwan sits 100 miles from the mainland reveals a strategic culture at war with strategic geography.

Japan's $58 Billion Defence Budget: The Power of Useful Ambiguity

Japan's $58 Billion Defence Budget: The Power of Useful Ambiguity

Japan's record military spending buys missiles and command integration with American forces. What it cannot buy is constitutional clarity. That ambiguity may be the alliance's most valuable asset—a deterrent that works precisely because no one knows its limits.

The Silicon Shield's Expiration Date

The Silicon Shield's Expiration Date

Taiwan's semiconductor monopoly has made the island indispensable to its international partners. But American industrial policy is explicitly designed to end that dependence. As chip production diversifies and military costs rise, the calculus sustaining Taiwan's security is quietly shifting.

The Unmaking of the West

The Unmaking of the West

When America sanctions Europeans for enforcing European law, it is not merely disagreeing about policy—it is declaring that the European conception of digital governance is itself illegitimate. The transatlantic relationship has survived many disputes. It may not survive this one.

The Sixty-Day Mirage: Why CENTCOM's Drone Task Forces Cannot Close the China Gap

The Sixty-Day Mirage: Why CENTCOM's Drone Task Forces Cannot Close the China Gap

CENTCOM's new task forces promise rapid drone deployment, but the sixty-day timeline addresses bureaucratic friction while ignoring industrial reality. China produces ten million drones annually. No procurement reform can bridge that chasm.

The Alliance That Cannot Win

The Alliance That Cannot Win

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have formed a mutual defense pact, expelled Western forces, and invited Russian contractors. The result is not victory over jihadists but accelerating state failure—and that may be precisely the point.

The Venezuela Deployment: Why America's Mismatch Is the Message

The Venezuela Deployment: Why America's Mismatch Is the Message

The USS Gerald R. Ford sits off Venezuela with enough firepower to destroy but not enough forces to occupy. This gap between capability and intent reveals Washington's true objectives—and their limits.

When the Network Goes Dark: Starlink's Vulnerability and the Future of Western Military Power

When the Network Goes Dark: Starlink's Vulnerability and the Future of Western Military Power

Russia's growing ability to jam SpaceX's satellite constellation threatens not just Ukraine's battlefield communications but the entire architecture of American and NATO military operations from Eastern Europe to the Pacific.

The Killer Instinct: What Made Donald Trump

The Killer Instinct: What Made Donald Trump

Roy Cohn taught him to sue. Fred Trump taught him that love was leverage. Military academy taught him that institutions betray. The survival system that emerged from these crucibles explains the leader—and his limits.

The Cornered Rat: What Made Vladimir Putin

The Cornered Rat: What Made Vladimir Putin

A childhood in post-siege Leningrad, abandonment in Dresden, and the chaos of 1990s Russia forged a leader who experiences geopolitics as personal survival. Understanding Putin's formative crucibles explains decisions that have reshaped Europe.