Sign in Subscribe

Assessments

The Reef That Decides Everything

The Reef That Decides Everything

The rusting hull of the Sierra Madre sits on Second Thomas Shoal, a Philippine Navy vessel deliberately grounded in 1999 to stake a territorial claim. A handful of marines live aboard, resupplied by small boats that must run a gauntlet of Chinese Coast Guard water cannons.

The Sanction That Couldn't Bite

The Sanction That Couldn't Bite

Russia was supposed to collapse by now. When Western nations imposed what officials called "unprecedented" economic sanctions in February 2022, the predictions were stark: GDP would crater 15%, the ruble would become rubble, Putin's war machine would grind to a halt within months.

The Ice Beneath the Peace

The Ice Beneath the Peace

Antarctica's greatest asset is its legal fiction. For sixty-five years, the Antarctic Treaty System has performed an extraordinary conjuring trick: seven nations claim sovereignty over the continent, two superpowers reserve the right to claim, and everyone pretends that freezing these positions...

The Countdown That Isn't

The Countdown That Isn't

Taiwan exists in a state of permanent almost. Almost a country. Almost at war. Almost reunified. For seventy-five years, the island has occupied a liminal space that international law cannot classify and strategic planners cannot resolve.