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Asia-Pacific

Coverage of Indo-Pacific security, South China Sea disputes, Taiwan contingencies, and the strategic dynamics of ASEAN, Australia, Japan, and Korea.

China's phantom fleet: Why chasing shadows in Latin America weakens Pacific deterrence

China's phantom fleet: Why chasing shadows in Latin America weakens Pacific deterrence

Beijing's Western Hemisphere presence consists of hospital ships and container ports, not warships. Yet American strategic culture struggles to ignore it, risking the very deterrence it claims to protect.

Why Pacific deterrence is failing from both ends at once

Why Pacific deterrence is failing from both ends at once

The assumption that US allies' political will and military capacity operate as separate variables—one of which might fail first—is wrong. They are degrading together in a feedback loop that may hollow out deterrence before anyone notices.

Australia's alliance dilemma: What happens when the US builds alternatives to Australian bases

Australia's alliance dilemma: What happens when the US builds alternatives to Australian bases

The United States is quietly constructing military and intelligence alternatives across the Indo-Pacific that could bypass Australian political constraints in a crisis. Australia risks remaining a target while losing influence over the decisions that make it one.

Why Australia cannot stay neutral in a US-China war

Why Australia cannot stay neutral in a US-China war

Australia hosts US military facilities so critical to American warfighting that Beijing would likely strike them in any serious conflict. The infrastructure that makes Australia valuable to Washington also makes it a target—and unlike the United States, Australia cannot absorb the consequences.

How China could neutralise US bases in Australia without firing a shot

How China could neutralise US bases in Australia without firing a shot

Beijing's strategists have studied the facilities that enable American power projection from Australian soil. Their doctrine suggests disruption, sabotage, and psychological pressure may achieve more than missiles ever could—without triggering the war China wants to avoid.

Why Taiwan's missile defense will fail in the first hours of a Chinese attack

Why Taiwan's missile defense will fail in the first hours of a Chinese attack

Taiwan has spent billions on Patriot batteries and indigenous interceptors. But the brutal arithmetic of saturation warfare means its layered defenses will likely collapse within hours of a serious Chinese strike—not from technological failure, but from the physics of fighting an adversary with...

China's ground stations are the real threat to Western military satellites

China's ground stations are the real threat to Western military satellites

While defense planners focus on Chinese missiles and anti-satellite weapons, Beijing has been building something more insidious: a global network of ground infrastructure across the Global South that can track, jam, and exploit Western military communications—without ever firing a shot.

China's Antelope Reef signals a strategic shift from deterrence to denial in the South China Sea

China's Antelope Reef signals a strategic shift from deterrence to denial in the South China Sea

Beijing's latest artificial island is not another territorial marker. It is a weapons platform designed to make American operations in the western Pacific prohibitively costly—a shift from threatening retaliation to eliminating options.

China knows where America's Pacific defenses are weakest—because INDOPACOM keeps telling them

China knows where America's Pacific defenses are weakest—because INDOPACOM keeps telling them

Admiral Paparo identified three 'meta trends' reshaping warfare: information, cognitive, and cyber operations. His testimony revealed that American forces still bolt these capabilities on at the end rather than integrating them from the start. That gap is where Chinese strategy operates.

Why the US cannot match China's ground station expansion—and what fails first in a space war

Why the US cannot match China's ground station expansion—and what fails first in a space war

China has built a global network of satellite ground stations across the Global South while American interagency processes grind slowly. The infrastructure gap reveals which systems would collapse first in orbital conflict.

Dark Eagle arrives: Why America's first hypersonic weapon won't close the gap with China

Dark Eagle arrives: Why America's first hypersonic weapon won't close the gap with China

The U.S. Army has declared its Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon operational, but with fewer than a dozen missiles against China's hundreds, the 'hypersonic gap' is being acknowledged rather than closed. Scale, not technology, will determine relevance.

Why China keeps building in the South China Sea despite already controlling it

Why China keeps building in the South China Sea despite already controlling it

Antelope Reef is not redundant expansion but the missing node in a surveillance network stretching from Hainan to the Spratlys. Beijing has learned that international protest is survivable—and strategic gaps are not.