Sign in Subscribe

Asia-Pacific

Coverage of Indo-Pacific security, South China Sea disputes, Taiwan contingencies, and the strategic dynamics of ASEAN, Australia, Japan, and Korea.

Does moving US submarines to Western Australia actually deter China—or just create a new target?

Does moving US submarines to Western Australia actually deter China—or just create a new target?

AUKUS will rotate nuclear-powered submarines through HMAS Stirling from 2027, betting that distance from Chinese missiles buys strategic advantage. But dispersal without defence, logistics, and diplomacy is only half a strategy.

Why Taiwan is buying missiles it may never fire — and why that is the point

Why Taiwan is buying missiles it may never fire — and why that is the point

Critics dismiss Taiwan's asymmetric arsenal as irrelevant against a Chinese blockade that could starve the island without a shot. But Taipei's missiles, mines, and drones are not designed to break a blockade — they are designed to ensure one never stays bloodless.

Why HMAS Stirling cannot yet replace Guam as America's Pacific naval hub

Why HMAS Stirling cannot yet replace Guam as America's Pacific naval hub

Australia's largest naval base is being upgraded to host nuclear submarines under AUKUS. But the infrastructure, workforce, and political frameworks needed to sustain US combat operations in a Taiwan crisis remain years away from reality.

Trump versus the Chagos treaty: What breaks when a president fights his own policy

Trump versus the Chagos treaty: What breaks when a president fights his own policy

The United States officially supports the UK-Mauritius agreement on Diego Garcia. Donald Trump calls it 'great stupidity' and threatens military force. The contradiction reveals how alliance management, international law, and military basing strategy collide over a tiny Indian Ocean atoll.

Taiwan's 72-hour gamble: Can asymmetric defence hold until America arrives?

Taiwan's 72-hour gamble: Can asymmetric defence hold until America arrives?

Taiwan has staked its survival on buying three days for US intervention. The strategy is sound. The assumptions behind it may not be. What happens when the porcupine meets a patient predator?

What breaks first: great-power nuclear stability or Middle East proliferation?

What breaks first: great-power nuclear stability or Middle East proliferation?

The collapse of US-Russia arms control threatens both strategic stability between great powers and nuclear restraint in volatile regions. The mechanisms differ, the timelines diverge, and the more immediate danger may not be where most analysts are looking.

Australia and Indonesia sign security treaties—but alignment with Jakarta remains elusive

Australia and Indonesia sign security treaties—but alignment with Jakarta remains elusive

The 2024 Defence Cooperation Agreement and 2026 Treaty on Common Security represent the most significant formalisation of Australia-Indonesia relations in decades. Yet Indonesia's commitment to non-alignment, ASEAN centrality, and economic ties with China means these agreements enable...

Australia's submarine gamble: Why B-2 bombers cannot replace AUKUS

Australia's submarine gamble: Why B-2 bombers cannot replace AUKUS

If AUKUS submarines arrive late or not at all, Australia has no credible Plan B. The B-2 bomber—often floated as an alternative—is neither available nor suitable. Understanding why reveals hard truths about middle-power deterrence.

Australia's Pacific communications would collapse in a Taiwan crisis. Here's why.

Australia's Pacific communications would collapse in a Taiwan crisis. Here's why.

China's new deep-sea cable-cutting technology can sever the undersea lines carrying 99% of Australia's data to Pacific partners. Satellites cannot compensate. HF radio offers only degraded backup. The honest assessment is sobering.

Taiwan's porcupine strategy has sharper quills but an uncertain heart

Taiwan's porcupine strategy has sharper quills but an uncertain heart

The island's shift toward asymmetric warfare addresses genuine tactical gaps in its defense posture. But missiles and drones cannot solve the deeper problem: whether Taiwanese society can sustain the casualties that successful resistance would require.

Taiwan's gray-zone dilemma: How to fight fishing boats without starting a war

Taiwan's gray-zone dilemma: How to fight fishing boats without starting a war

China's maritime militia can strangle Taiwan's economy without firing a shot. The island's military has tools to respond—but every option risks the escalation Taipei desperately wants to avoid. In the narrow space between capitulation and catastrophe, Taiwan must find a path that may not exist.

Why middle powers are building tech security pacts without America—and whether it will work

Why middle powers are building tech security pacts without America—and whether it will work

Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Canada are forging bilateral agreements on semiconductors, critical minerals, and cyber defense that bypass traditional alliances. These minilateral arrangements aim to reduce China dependency, but success requires decades of investment that democratic...