What breaks first when US allies must self-defend: NATO's eastern flank, Taiwan, or the Gulf?
Three allied theaters share a common vulnerability: industrial dependence on American production that no ally has seriously attempted to replicate. When stockpiles determine survival, the question becomes who runs out first.
Trajectory Daily Brief: 28 January 2026
Britain gives away Diego Garcia to keep it. Taiwan's military leaks like a sieve but still functions. Europe spends record billions on defense while buying American weapons.
Does britain's diego garcia deal threaten America's Indian ocean anchor against China?
Britain cedes Diego Garcia sovereignty—but America keeps the base
The UK-Mauritius agreement transfers sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago while preserving a 99-year US military lease. Critics warn of strategic disaster. The operational reality is far more mundane—and the legal foundations far stronger.
Japan's hypersonic missiles restore tactical deterrence but accelerate China's first-strike calculus
Japan's hypersonic gamble: Deterrence restored or arms race accelerated?
Tokyo's new strike capabilities are designed to counter China and North Korea. But the same weapons that strengthen deterrence also fuel the regional arms competition they aim to prevent—a contradiction Japan cannot escape.
Has Chinese intelligence already broken Taiwan's military defenses?
Has Chinese espionage already crippled Taiwan's military before the war begins?
Taiwan prosecuted 64 espionage cases last year while absorbing 2.4 million cyberattacks daily. The island can still fight—but decades of Chinese intelligence penetration have eroded command coherence, constrained American cooperation, and enabled Beijing to calibrate coercion with uncomfortable...
Trajectory Daily Brief: 27 January 2026
Britain gives away Diego Garcia to keep it forever. Europe spends record billions on defense while America threatens its oldest ally over a rock in the Indian Ocean.
If the UK cedes diego garcia sovereignty, does China gain a strategic foothold that compromises US indo-pacific power projection?
Diego Garcia's new landlord: How Mauritius gains leverage over America's most valuable Indian Ocean base
Britain's transfer of Chagos sovereignty to Mauritius preserves US military operations under a 99-year lease—but gives a small island nation with growing Chinese ties quiet leverage that compounds over decades.
