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The $1.5 Trillion Bet on a Future That May Never Arrive
Technology

The $1.5 Trillion Bet on a Future That May Never Arrive

Tesla's market valuation embeds hundreds of billions in robotaxi expectations. The gap between what markets believe and what technology can deliver reveals how investors process radical uncertainty—and why they may be wrong.
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Michael Soren
The Architecture of Exclusion: How Travel Bans Are Reshaping Global Mobility
Governance

The Architecture of Exclusion: How Travel Bans Are Reshaping Global Mobility

The United States has imposed its most expansive travel restrictions since 1952, affecting 19 countries with potential expansion to 32. The diplomatic and economic consequences extend far beyond counterterrorism—they are reordering who moves, where, and under what conditions.
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Michael Soren
Licensed to Kill: Australia's Firearms Paradox After Bondi
Asia-Pacific

Licensed to Kill: Australia's Firearms Paradox After Bondi

The December 2025 Bondi Beach attack killed sixteen people with legally obtained weapons. One attacker had been known to ASIO for six years. The system worked exactly as designed—which is precisely the problem Australia must now confront.
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Michael Soren
Daily Brief: 16 December 2025

Daily Brief: 16 December 2025

Jimmy Lai gets life as Hong Kong's tycoons fall. Europe's health systems run on CIA contractor code despite sovereignty laws.
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Michael Soren
The Art of Not Choosing: How Asia Navigates Great Power Conflict

The Art of Not Choosing: How Asia Navigates Great Power Conflict

From ASEAN's calculated silence to Taiwan's shadow over every calculation, Asian states have built a sophisticated grammar of non-commitment. But the ambiguity space that enabled decades of stability is shrinking fast.
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Michael Soren
The Spy Who Couldn't Disappear: HUMINT in the Digital Age
Intelligence

The Spy Who Couldn't Disappear: HUMINT in the Digital Age

Human intelligence tradecraft has survived every technological revolution from the telegraph to the satellite. The smartphone may be different. In a world where everyone leaves a digital trail from birth, the ancient art of espionage faces its most fundamental transformation.
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Michael Soren
The Invisible Siege: How NATO's Greyzone Campaign Is Quietly Strangling Russian Options

The Invisible Siege: How NATO's Greyzone Campaign Is Quietly Strangling Russian Options

Russia once enjoyed strategic patience backed by operational freedom. NATO's coordinated below-threshold pressure—financial, cyber, informational, and military-adjacent—has systematically closed the spaces where Russian power operated freely, creating constraints Moscow struggles to name, let...
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Michael Soren
The Sky That Watches Back: How Cheap Drones and Electronic Warfare Remade the Battlefield

The Sky That Watches Back: How Cheap Drones and Electronic Warfare Remade the Battlefield

A $400 drone can destroy a $5 million vehicle. This cost inversion, combined with the invisible chess match of electronic warfare, has transformed modern combat from a contest of firepower into a struggle for survival under permanent surveillance.
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Michael Soren
The Shadow War Everyone Fights, Nobody Declares
Great Powers

The Shadow War Everyone Fights, Nobody Declares

Nuclear weapons made great power war unthinkable but not great power competition impossible. Grey zone warfare—cyber attacks, economic coercion, information operations—has become the default grammar of rivalry between states that cannot afford to fight directly.
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Michael Soren
The Geometry of Hedging: What India and Pakistan Reveal About International Order
South Asia

The Geometry of Hedging: What India and Pakistan Reveal About International Order

India and Pakistan maintain simultaneous relationships with the United States, China, and Russia without facing meaningful consequences. Their success reveals not diplomatic cleverness but a structural transformation in how international order actually works—one where commitment is costly and...
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Michael Soren
The Exemplary Destruction: What Jimmy Lai's Conviction Reveals About Beijing's Control of Hong Kong's Business Elite
Governance

The Exemplary Destruction: What Jimmy Lai's Conviction Reveals About Beijing's Control of Hong Kong's Business Elite

Jimmy Lai's life sentence is not punishment but potlatch—the ritual destruction of the most valuable to demonstrate absolute sovereignty. For Hong Kong's surviving tycoons, the message is unmistakable: everything they possess exists at Beijing's pleasure.
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Michael Soren
Daily Brief: 15 December 2025

Daily Brief: 15 December 2025

European health systems embed US intelligence-linked analytics while citizens use VPNs that aren't where they claim to be—sovereignty is theater when infrastructure tells the real story.
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Michael Soren
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