Tokyo's record defence budget buys genuine capabilities that will complicate Chinese military planning. But constitutional constraints, industrial limitations, and alliance dependencies mean the billions purchase time and options—not security guarantees. The honest answer: Japan is creating both...

The Pentagon says China will field nine aircraft carriers by 2035—the largest Indo-Pacific carrier buildup since World War II. But building ships optimized for blue-water prestige while Taiwan sits 100 miles from the mainland reveals a strategic culture at war with strategic geography.

Japan's record military spending buys missiles and command integration with American forces. What it cannot buy is constitutional clarity. That ambiguity may be the alliance's most valuable asset—a deterrent that works precisely because no one knows its limits.