Taiwan's outlying islands and the HIMARS gamble: hours, not days
Taiwan plans to deploy HIMARS launchers to islands within sight of the Chinese coast. The launchers could devastate an invasion fleet—if they survive long enough to fire. Military logic and political reality collide in a space measured in minutes.
Trajectory Daily Brief: 01 February 2026
Taiwan deploys sitting-duck missiles while Bougainville rejects Chinese billions. America's Gulf allies close their bases as Greenland's legal limbo threatens Arctic control.
Why bougainville's landowners can veto Beijing: The structural limits of Chinese economic coercion in the Pacific
Why Bougainville rejected Chinese mining investment—and what it reveals about Beijing's Pacific limits
When Bougainville's president turned away China Molybdenum Company in January 2026, he wasn't bowing to Western pressure. He was honoring a governance architecture forged in civil war—one that Beijing's economic instruments cannot penetrate.
Trajectory Daily Brief: 31 January 2026
Xi's military purge leaves China's war council with two members as Pentagon downgrades the China threat. Gulf allies deny US bases while Taiwan's 2027 deadline approaches.
Can the united states strike Iran without gulf bases, and does deterrence still hold?
Can America strike Iran without Gulf bases? The uncomfortable arithmetic of Middle East deterrence
When B-2 bombers hit Iranian nuclear facilities in January 2025, they flew from Missouri—not Qatar or the UAE. Gulf allies are hedging, and Washington's regional leverage is narrower than it admits.
Xi Jinping's military purge sacrifices invasion readiness to secure absolute war-making control
Xi's military purge: Weakened invasion force or tighter grip on the trigger?
China has removed at least sixty senior military officers since 2023 in its biggest purge since Mao. The campaign has gutted the Rocket Force and frozen defense procurement—yet PLA exercises around Taiwan grow more sophisticated. The purge reveals Xi's priorities: he fears disloyalty more than...
What breaks first when America deprioritizes China: Japan's constitutional consensus or australia's submarine program
What breaks first when America deprioritizes China: Allied trust or allied capacity?
The 2026 National Defense Strategy has reordered American priorities, placing homeland defense ahead of comprehensive China containment. For allies who restructured their security postures around sustained confrontation with Beijing, the shift does not merely alter strategy—it questions the...
