The South China Sea cable vulnerability
The sovereignty trap: America's first strikes in Nigeria and the collapse of Sahel security
The South China Sea cable vulnerability
The Pentagon's Absorption Problem: Why $1.5 Trillion Cannot Buy Its Way to Capability
A 50% defense budget increase sounds transformative. But market concentration, workforce collapse, and acquisition sclerosis ensure that additional funding will inflate contractor profits rather than expand military capability. The constraints are structural, not managerial.
America's First Strikes in Nigeria Signal a New Sahel Doctrine
On Christmas Day 2025, American missiles hit Nigerian soil for the first time. The operation targeted ISIS militants near Sokoto—but its true target was the collapsing security architecture of West Africa, where French withdrawal and Russian expansion have left Washington with fewer options and...
The Invisible Tripwire: How China's Cable Control Erodes South China Sea Deterrence
China's ability to sever or tap Southeast Asian undersea cables creates pre-conflict leverage that degrades allied coordination without triggering retaliation. The advantage is quiet, legal, and growing.
The Purge Paradox: Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Crippling the Military It Was Meant to Strengthen
China's military purges have removed at least fifteen senior officers and cut the Central Military Commission nearly in half. The campaign reveals not strength through discipline but a loyalty-competence trap that may leave the PLA weaker precisely when Xi needs it strongest.
Trajectory Daily Brief: 12 January 2026
America strikes Nigeria for the first time ever while China builds unsinkable aircraft carriers. The UAE abandons Yemen as Manila's internet cables become military targets.
Why the US defense industry can't absorb a 50% budget increase
China's South China Sea militarization and the Taiwan timeline
