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Michael Soren

Trajectory Daily Brief: 26 February 2026

Trajectory Daily Brief: 26 February 2026

Europe promises cheap drone killers by 2027 while Iran squeezes the world's oil chokepoint, China locks up Africa's minerals unchallenged, and Australia quietly makes its Taiwan commitment irreversible.

Trajectory Daily Brief: 25 February 2026

Trajectory Daily Brief: 25 February 2026

Europe races to build cheap drone interceptors by 2027. Iran's nuclear breakout window just fell below one week. China locked up Africa's minerals two decades ago—Washington is still drafting its first response.

Europe's five-nation drone defence pact: fast fix or familiar fragmentation?

Europe's five-nation drone defence pact: fast fix or familiar fragmentation?

France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK signed the LEAP drone defence agreement in Kraków, promising cheap interceptors by 2027. The programme addresses a genuine capability gap — but must overcome the industrial habits and institutional clutter that have defeated every previous attempt at...

Can Australia keep sailing through the Taiwan Strait?

Can Australia keep sailing through the Taiwan Strait?

HMAS Sydney's February 2026 transit through the Taiwan Strait broke years of Australian caution. But a single voyage does not make a deterrence posture. Whether Canberra can sustain what it started depends on fleet size, shipyard output, and political stamina it may not possess.

Trajectory Daily Brief: 24 February 2026

Trajectory Daily Brief: 24 February 2026

Iran chokes the strait it needs open to survive. China spent $42 billion locking up Africa's minerals while Washington wrote strategy papers. Russia's Wagner didn't die — it metastasized into four heads NATO can't name.

Iran's Strait of Hormuz threats are undermining its own nuclear bargaining position

Iran's Strait of Hormuz threats are undermining its own nuclear bargaining position

Tehran wields the world's most important oil chokepoint as leverage in nuclear negotiations with Washington. But each provocation strengthens the case for the military strikes Iran hopes to prevent, while exposing fragilities—from Gulf desalination plants to China's monopsony grip—that constrain...

Washington's African minerals push may be a decade too late to break China's refining monopoly

Washington's African minerals push may be a decade too late to break China's refining monopoly

China spent twenty years building an integrated system from African mines to Chinese battery factories. America responded with a railway, scattered investments, and institutions designed to prevent the very concentration that mineral dominance requires. The refining gap may already be permanent.

Why Russia's post-Wagner network in Africa is harder to fight than the original

Why Russia's post-Wagner network in Africa is harder to fight than the original

Prigozhin's death was supposed to cripple Russia's African operations. Instead, the Kremlin replaced one targetable leader with a distributed ecosystem of military, financial, and information nodes that Western sanctions and NATO's institutional toolkit cannot reach.

Australia keeps transiting the Taiwan Strait — and can no longer pretend it is hedging

Australia keeps transiting the Taiwan Strait — and can no longer pretend it is hedging

Four naval transits in three years, a $200 billion submarine programme, and deepening integration with American military systems have foreclosed Australia's old strategy of equidistance between Washington and Beijing. The choice has been made. Canberra just cannot say so.

Trajectory Daily Brief: 23 February 2026

Trajectory Daily Brief: 23 February 2026

Japan's islands sit closer to Taiwan than Tokyo, making neutrality a fantasy — while Washington lectures Latin America on sovereignty it won't grant its own allies.

Trajectory Daily Brief: 22 February 2026

Trajectory Daily Brief: 22 February 2026

Japan can't pretend neutrality when its islands are closer to Taiwan than its own capital. Meanwhile, the last nuclear arms treaty just died and the Sahel's juntas are learning what "no Western help" actually means.

Trajectory Daily Brief: 18 February 2026

Trajectory Daily Brief: 18 February 2026

Japan drills for a Taiwan war it can't survive, Washington demands Latin American loyalty that drives capitals toward Beijing, and al-Qaeda flies drones no Sahelian junta can shoot down.